The uncertainty caused by Covid-19 has dented management’s appetite to make big strategic moves such as conducting large transformative deals.
Although much of the world is still under some form of lockdown due to Covid-19, M&A transactions have not come to a complete standstill. The first quarter of 2020 saw 3,685 transactions announced worth over $560bn. But deal activity has slowed considerably. According to Mergermarket.com, global M&A activity is down over 39% by value compared to the first quarter of 2019. Moreover, just eight transformative “megadeals” (transactions with an enterprise value above $10bn) were announced globally in Q1 2020, down from 11 in Q1 2019 and 14 in Q1 2018.
根据Dealogic的说法，2020年全球并购市场自2005年以来经历了一年中最慢的两个月，而全球交易的价值则降至3月的六年低点。在今年的头两个月中，仅宣布了价值1122亿美元的交易，尽管这些交易包括诸如将Thyssenkrupp Elevator出售给投资者财团的著名交易，价格为187亿美元，这笔34亿美元的Aon -Willis Towers Towers Watson Merger交易，WATSON MERGER交易，以及全世界以106亿美元的价格收购Ingenico Group。最近，自由全球获得的telefónica在5月的一笔31亿英镑的交易中。
大型巨大的低迷并不奇怪。
COVID-19引起的不确定性是由于三个关键因素造成的：公共市场波动和股价不稳定；区域性限制对旅行和面对面会议的混合；围绕全球经济前景的不确定性，以提醒2020年和2021年。结合在一起，这些因素正在重塑并购景观，并为买卖双方带来了一系列挑战和机遇。
对于收购方,增加资产的可用性s and distressed companies has created a “buyer’s market”, especially for buyers who have cash and/or still have access to debt funding. Some buyers are likely to avoid cross-border deals due to country and regional protectionism to prevent takeovers of local distressed companies. Recently the EU, Australia and India among others have moved to implement regulatory obstacles to takeovers of local distressed companies by foreign buyers.
随着面对面的会议局限度，工厂和办公访问被取消，买家很难对目标公司进行尽职调查。但是，买家正在采取创新方法使用无人机尽职调查和GoPro视频访问。对于仍然可以获得债务融资的公司，极低的利率创造了更便宜的融资来资助交易。由于资产价格较低，收购方将忽略与潜在目标的组织拟合。
迫切希望产生现金的卖家正在销售更多的核心和非核心资产。通过更改提供具有增加消费者需求的产品和服务的公司或服务的公司，他们已经创新了成功地解决Covid-19，这是有吸引力的收购目标，并且将受到收购方的高度重视。
如果他们尚未将它们置于适当的位置，那么造成估值的苦恼公司正在实施毒药，以防止敌对接管。因为他们拼命出售，所以卖家会忽略与潜在买家的组织合身。
所谓的“僵尸交易”是在签署和结束之间陷入的交易。为了节省现金和/或不承担额外的债务来资助交易，买家希望通过调用大多数人中发现的物质不利变化（MAC）条款来摆脱同意在Covid-19发作之前同意的交易。交易协议。
金融市场的波动性加上加剧的经济不确定性正在使关于估值的谈判变得复杂，而卖方试图防止买家退出交易的卖方将增加MAC条款诉讼。
More and accelerated industry consolidation will occur, for company and industry survival (e.g. retail, restaurants, and entertainment). Because of the slowdown in deal volume, M&A service providers such as banks, lawyers and consultants are repurposing their transaction staff to, at least temporarily, work in their restructuring units to help clients refinance and restructure debt, renegotiate supplier contracts, and achieve operating efficiencies.
从长远来看，随着大流行的消退，各种公司将积累现金的库存，从而产生了对交易的需求，并启动了另一个重要的“并购浪潮”的开始。
关键要点
Flexibility – Conducting deals via video only, service providers repurposing staff to other service lines until transaction volumes pick up.
Creativity – Site visits via drones, buyers and sellers trying to assess 'cultural fit' with no in-person meetings.
在风险上增加风险 - 基于交易的不良记录通常无法获得预计的收益，并购是固有的风险活动（尤其是对于买家而言）。因此，在决定前进（某些买家是）的情况下，正在增加风险，而无需亲自与合作伙伴公司会面。
Lawyers will be busy – With several buyers trying to walk away from deals struck before Covid-19, there will be an increase of litigation to test the material adverse change clauses of those deals.
鉴于Covid-19造成的公共卫生和经济影响的流动性，再加上对大流行病的区域反应和政策的可变性，买卖双方，卖方和并购服务提供商必须在可预见的交易策略方面灵活和创造力未来。
But any experienced dealmaker will tell you that these traits are not new, they have always been essential for success in the deal world.
